Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 26 2023 08:15:50

FOUS30 KWBC 260814
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 26 2023 - 12Z Wed Dec 27 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA, NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...

Scattered to widespread rain will continue across the Appalachians
and surrounding area as the another surface low will develop along
the tightening low-level baroclinic boundary near the Gulf Stream
off the coast. The steady rainfall will increase in intensity thus
the long duration of the steadiest rain should allow for widely
scattered instances of flash flooding on the south/east facing
slopes and immediately adjacent foothills. The latest guidance
shows an uptick in coverage and amounts expected for parts of the
Southeast up through the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The Slight
Risk was broadened to include more of southern Virginia, western
North Carolina and just over the border of South Carolina where
amounts of 1 to 2+ inches with isolated higher amounts are
expected to focus. The Marginal remains in place for the tail-end
of the rainfall that is largely forecast to occur overnight
tonight in the Day 1 period. Finally, the forcing and instability
will be weaker further north into VA, so the Marginal remains
unchanged up to the mountains adjacent to the Shenandoah Valley.

Campbell



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 28 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 29 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-8f2unYbG2W5p_8iYQ3dc0NXM3vU9u7e5HwP4w_BWZTu=
1XVTSI9H63g1QOH7YUfGfJYmGuvdEXsodIoenxJ_zK-74lY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-8f2unYbG2W5p_8iYQ3dc0NXM3vU9u7e5HwP4w_BWZTu=
1XVTSI9H63g1QOH7YUfGfJYmGuvdEXsodIoenxJ_1oBl95Q$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-8f2unYbG2W5p_8iYQ3dc0NXM3vU9u7e5HwP4w_BWZTu=
1XVTSI9H63g1QOH7YUfGfJYmGuvdEXsodIoenxJ_TMmcORE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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