Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 25 2023 20:00:08

ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas
vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys
into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula
appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection
should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah
Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after
dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing
portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in
areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible.

...Grams.. 12/25/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/

A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today,
while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the
Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region.  Scattered thunderstorms
are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today,
with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any
risk of severe weather.

....FL Keys...
The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL
Keys.  Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong
thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West.  This activity is moving
slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon
and early evening.  However, low-level winds are weakening with
time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to
farther east near the Keys.  Therefore, the risk of severe storms
moving inland appears low.

$$

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