Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 25 2023 00:55:03

ACUS01 KWNS 250054
SWODY1
SPC AC 250053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the
central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning.

....Synopsis...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough
pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest
Gulf Coast.  An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead
of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley.  Although
the primary surface low is forecast to develop from northeast OK
into the lower MO Valley tonight, a secondary area of low pressure
is forecast to develop from southeast LA into MS/AL during the
overnight on the northern periphery of the more appreciably
modified-Gulf airmass.  It remains possible storm development will
occur this evening over southeast LA and move downstream into parts
of southern MS/AL.  Although the incipient severe risk is
conditional upon robust storm development (substantial airmass
modification will need to occur based on the 00z Slidell, LA 00z
raob; 0 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue with the low probability
highlight for a brief tornado/localized severe gust late this
evening into the overnight.

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the East and
areas from the High Plains westward to the West Coast.

...Smith.. 12/25/2023

$$

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