Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 24 2023 07:37:55 AWUS01 KWNH 240737 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-241335- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 236 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2023 Areas affected...central/eastern OK into central/northern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 240735Z - 241335Z SUMMARY...Short term areas of training with 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates will be possible through 13Z for portions of central and northern TX into central/eastern OK. While coverage is expected to remain localized, flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...Trends in radar reflectivity across central and northern TX have shown a gradual increase in the coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms over the past few hours, located out ahead of a prefrontal line of showers/thunderstorms. The prefrontal axis of storms extended from west-central OK into west-central TX and was noted to be tracking eastward at 15-20 kt over the past 3 hours ending at 07Z. However, confluence in the surface to 850 mb layer has been intensifying just ahead of the line as low level wind speeds increase in response to an approaching mid to upper-level trough axis over the southern High Plains. The 07Z SPC mesoanalysis showed PWATs/MUCAPE ranged from 1.2 inches/100+ J/kg in northern OK to about 1.5 inches/1000 J/kg in central TX. Meanwhile, OK into northern TX resided within the diffluent right entrance region of an 80-100 kt upper level jet streak located over the southern/central High Plains, enhancing ascent across the area. Low level wind speeds are forecast to increase further this morning, reaching the 50-60 kt range at 850 mb in east-central OK according to the RAP. The increase in low level wind speeds will enhance the potential for training/backbuilding of heavy rain, especially where subtle veering of the low level flow occurs ahead of the convective line, increasing alignment between the deeper-layer steering flow and low level winds. While the majority of showers/thunderstorms are expected to maintain a steady progression toward the east, linear segments of heavy rain may align briefly with the mean wind, supporting rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. Increasing coverage of showers/thunderstorms will also increase the potential for cell mergers and subsequent increases in rainfall intensity. Localized rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through 13Z may support localized areas of flash flooding across a SSW to NNE axis of the Southern Plains extending from San Antonio to Dallas-Fort Worth to Oklahoma City and Tulsa. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8nrCOaBnjjC8mEaQOXh0OFAlTtcPnC26yXbTz65ouoTpd6ltDl4-0YSiAHcvOY8Z7Iup= TOCn9_wi-CemQOcv6xe_Xkw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36439602 35679570 32599594 29759716 29339839=20 29829896 31559861 33209808 35539754 36329699=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .