Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 23 2023 17:22:25 ACUS02 KWNS 231722 SWODY2 SPC AC 231720 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ....Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ....Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ...Wendt.. 12/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .