Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 23 2023 05:43:40 ACUS01 KWNS 230543 SWODY1 SPC AC 230541 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ....Southern High Plains... A large-scale mid- to upper-level trough will move east from the Great Basin/Desert Southwest into the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the period. A lead mid-level speed max will move through the base of the larger-scale trough and overspread the southern High Plains during the afternoon/early evening. In the low levels, a developing cyclone over the central High Plains will aid in advecting moisture northward on southerly flow across the southern High Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across eastern NM and adjacent TX counties during the morning. Considerable cloud cover will act to partially inhibit heating and low-level lapse rates --especially with north extent-- will be limited as a result. Despite weak instability and model-derived MUCAPE 250-1000 J/kg, cool 500 mb temperatures (-16 to -18 deg C) may foster an environment with a few vigorous updrafts capable of a marginally severe hail risk with activity that develops during the afternoon. A mix of cells and bands of storms will likely transition to an extensive, broken squall line by the evening as it moves from the Caprock east into southwest OK and western north TX during the overnight. A tornado cannot be ruled out across parts of west TX during the afternoon, but this risk will likely be limited by the lack of stronger low-level shear and buoyancy. The aforementioned squall line will ingest increasingly elevated parcels with east extent across OK and western north TX and probably hinder the propensity for localized severe gusts with the convective line overnight. ...Smith/Bentley.. 12/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .