Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 23 2023 03:41:18

AWUS01 KWNH 230341
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230840-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2023

Areas affected...southwestern to central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230337Z - 230840Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue for
portions of southwestern to central AZ over the next 3-5 hours.
Slow movement of heavy rain with peak rates of 0.25 to 0.5+ in/hr
and additional rain of 1-2 inches through 09Z is expected.

DISCUSSION...MRMS base reflectivity across western AZ showed a
slow moving area of heavy rain along the La Paz and Yuma County
border. Limited ground truth of rainfall is available in this
region of rural AZ, but from what was observed, peak rainfall
rates within this area of rain were at least 0.25 to 0.35 in/hr.
Forcing for ascent was being driven by a lead low to mid-level
vorticity max which was has become elongated from SW to NE across
western AZ. Slow movement of the mesoscale circulation center
along the La Paz/Yuma County line has contributed to 1-2 inches of
rain so far within a region containing weak MUCAPE (up to 500
J/kg) and PWATs of 0.7 to 0.9 inches (GPS data)

RAP forecasts show slow movement to the low to mid-level vorticity
max in western AZ through 09Z as the center of the parent closed
low translates eastward into southwestern AZ. Lingering MUCAPE of
up to ~500 J/kg is forecast to continue from western AZ into
central and southern AZ. While instability is decreasing across
western AZ, additional areas of slow moving heavy rain are
expected to continue in the short term with an additional 1 to 1.5
inches possible.

Downstream into central/south-central AZ, the tail end of a
remnant convective line just east of PHX is expected to remain a
potential focus for development of showers/thunderstorms within a
lingering instability weak axis and southwesterly to southerly
mean flow. While the threat is fairly low, the possibility of an
additional 1-2 inches of rain will remain across portions of
central AZ as well through 09Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-8ekNpUVhWqXCK4vZUxm309GNwJw8ZO06UrTV6HMhiz7CsMGSbP6bXKZzZuL7iGDFyoF=
Ka0bwdPsyZVuGZUL7NeJuFo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34831225 34611160 34051114 33461102 32841105=20
            31931136 31511189 31451245 31721285 31971287=20
            32381270 32771248 33011254 33161279 33061311=20
            32631353 32621403 32771428 33231465 33971435=20
            34381381 34531339 34711280=20

=3D =3D =3D
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