Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 23 2023 00:58:50

ACUS01 KWNS 230058
SWODY1
SPC AC 230057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible tonight across southern Arizona.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over
the California/Mexico border and it will move east along the
Arizona/Sonora border by early Saturday morning.  Relatively cool
mid-level temperatures (-22 deg C at 500 mb) were observed this
evening on the 00z San Diego raob.  These cool temperatures aloft
are contributing to weak buoyancy across the Desert Southwest and
are supporting episodic thunderstorm development.  As deep-layer
ascent spreads east across southern AZ this evening, a continuation
of a forced convective band may continue to yield an isolated risk
for localized severe gusts despite weak low-level lapse rates.
Elsewhere, tranquil conditions exist across a large part of the
remaining CONUS due in part to a surface ridge over the Gulf Coast
and Eastern Seaboard.

...Smith.. 12/23/2023

$$

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