Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 22 2023 05:54:46

ACUS01 KWNS 220554
SWODY1
SPC AC 220552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible during the afternoon and evening
across parts of southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico.
Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the primary
hazards.

....Southwest...
A mid/upper-level cyclone initially off the southern CA/Baja coast
is forecast to move east-northeastward and eventually evolve into a
shortwave trough, as it begins to interact with a northern-stream
shortwave trough moving across the Northwest. Precipitation will
likely be rather widespread during the morning across parts of
Arizona, but some diurnal destabilization will be possible as colder
temperatures aloft overspread modest low-level moisture.

Two areas of possible strong-storm development are apparent. The
first is across southeast AZ along the southern periphery of the
early-day precipitation shield, where storms that develop in an area
of somewhat stronger instability across northwest Sonora will move
northeastward across the international border. While instability
will likely remain weak in this region, favorable large-scale ascent
and deep-layer shear may support a threat of isolated hail and/or
gusty/damaging winds with the strongest storms, especially if a
supercell or two can be sustained.

The second area of possible strong-storm development will be closer
to the ejecting low across southwest AZ. Cold temperatures aloft (at
or below -20C at 500 mb) will compensate somewhat for marginal
diurnal heating, with MLCAPE possibly increasing to around 500 J/kg.
Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization,
with isolated hail potential, though backing flow aloft near the low
may result in a quick evolution to linear or cluster mode.

Late in the evening, convection will spread into parts of
central/southern NM. While a stronger elevated storm or two will be
possible overnight, diminishing instability will likely limit
late-night severe potential.

...Dean/Bentley.. 12/22/2023

$$

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