Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 21 2023 19:52:34

ACUS01 KWNS 211952
SWODY1
SPC AC 211950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern
California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast
Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....20Z Update...
Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across
southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance
trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the
southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability.

...Gleason.. 12/21/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/

....Discussion...
Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today,
away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a
second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja
coast through the period.

Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level
conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting
convective potential over a majority of the CONUS.

Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include
southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the
aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the
Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave
troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise
weak/westerly flow.  In both areas, severe weather is not expected.

$$

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