Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 21 2023 08:27:48 ACUS03 KWNS 210827 SWODY3 SPC AC 210826 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast into the central and southern Plains on Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ....Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to begin the period over eastern AZ before devolving further into an open wave while continuing northeastward over the remainder of the Southwest and into the southern/central High Plains. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly in the wake of the lead wave, progressing southeastward across the Great Basin and into the Four Corner. This overall evolution will result in a persistence of upper troughing over the Rockies and High Plains, with southwesterly flow aloft being maintained across the southern Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and ahead of the southern-stream upper low, from eastern AZ across NM and into far west TX. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across the southern High Plains as the low moves northeastward. Cool surface temperatures and modest low-level moisture will temper buoyancy, but enhanced mid-level flow will contribute to enough shear for storm organization. As a result, any more robust, sustained updrafts may be able to produce hail. However, the current expectation is for the limited buoyancy to keep the severe potential too isolated to introduce any severe probabilities. Showers and thunderstorm will continue to expand eastward into more of the southern Plains during the evening and overnight, but limited buoyancy and shear should limit the severe potential with this activity as well. ...Mosier.. 12/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .