Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 19 2023 08:18:18

FOUS30 KWBC 190818
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 19 2023 - 12Z Wed Dec 20 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA...

A strong, anomalously deep closed upper low currently well
offshore the Pacific Northwest will drop southeastward toward the
central California coast by early Wednesday morning. This system
will bring an unsettled and active weather pattern to much of the
coastal areas of California through the rest of this week,
beginning today/tonight across mainly northern/central California
coast where the greatest forcing for ascent exists. A plume of
higher moisture, characterized by PWs near/exceeding 1" and IVT
values 400-500 kg/m/s (per CW3E), will brush the coastal areas and
lead to a threat of hourly totals in excess of 0.5". The 00Z HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 0.5"+ in 1-hr peak near 70 percent
along the coast north of the Bay Area, which may lead to some
isolated flooding, particularly for sensitive and urban areas.
24-hr totals approaching 2-2.5" are expected with isolated higher
amounts near 3" possible along the coast. Across the northern
Sierra, snow levels will be relatively high, so the expected 2-3"
totals may lead to some flooding concerns.

Taylor


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7Z2pBkQVZ7FhJsTrBlRuF0uqAJIUteya4StN3k_ajecU=
_EsCQ_XSVMzidJ8H91U5RsIH1G2OY3Yipz9FYmy2EBpXW5o$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7Z2pBkQVZ7FhJsTrBlRuF0uqAJIUteya4StN3k_ajecU=
_EsCQ_XSVMzidJ8H91U5RsIH1G2OY3Yipz9FYmy2OGfxJB0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7Z2pBkQVZ7FhJsTrBlRuF0uqAJIUteya4StN3k_ajecU=
_EsCQ_XSVMzidJ8H91U5RsIH1G2OY3Yipz9FYmy2EmiK8dA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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