Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 18 2023 19:40:53 ACUS01 KWNS 181938 SWODY1 SPC AC 181936 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of this afternoon into tonight. ....Synopsis... Showers will continue across New England into this evening ahead of the elongated surface low currently from near Long Island toward the St. Lawrence Valley. Gusty surface winds also will persist given the strong pressure gradient and intense low-level winds just above the surface. However, any deeper convective elements will remain offshore, and thunderstorm potential will be low over land. Given deeper convection has pushed east, severe probabilities have been removed from southern New England. Isolated thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon across parts of central/northern CA, but chances should diminish by evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Leitman.. 12/18/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/ ....Southeastern New England.. A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time, immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island. While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast Massachusetts). As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level flow observed across this area. This could result in gusts slightly above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337. ....California... Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/ evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .