Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 18 2023 06:54:48

ACUS02 KWNS 180654
SWODY2
SPC AC 180652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
Upper low initially centered over the PA/western NY vicinity is
forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. This upper low will
be characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and strong mid-level
flow, particularly throughout its eastern periphery. Even so,
low-level moisture will have been scoured well offshore by a
previous frontal intrusion, and the dry continental air mass
expected to be in place will be hostile to deep convection.

Farther west, an upper low is expected to drift southward off the
West Coast, ending the period centered off the central CA Coast.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated across central CA
ahead of this upper low, contributing to showers throughout the day.
A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning flashes are possible
within these showers. A higher probability lightning potential is
expected early Wednesday morning as the primary frontal band
associated with the upper low approaches the central CA Coast.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
westerly flow aloft south of the upper low across southern CA.
However, thermodynamic conditions in the vicinity of this shortwave
are not conducive to lightning production.

...Mosier.. 12/18/2023

$$

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