Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2336
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 18 2023 02:54:01

ACUS11 KWNS 180253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180253=20
NCZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Discussion 2336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 180253Z - 180400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms along
the NC coast that can ingest surface-based buoyancy. A Tornado Watch
is being issued.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to approach the NC/SC
coastline, with an effective warm front established roughly near the
NC shore. Regional VADs depict impressively curved/enlarged
hodographs over extreme eastern North Carolina. The effective warm
front and associated marginally buoyant surface-based parcels have
struggled to move far inland over the last several hours, limiting
severe potential. However, mid 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints
reside along the shore, and it is possible that this better moisture
may move further inland of ongoing storms over the next couple of
hours. Should this occur, a damaging gust or brief tornado may
develop with any of the stronger storms. Given the impressive shear
profiles, a new Tornado Watch is being issued given
destabilization/convective trends that are possible over the next
few hours.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 12/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9C381209nN5V9fQjYVbdryUbVEyGBsKVzeyRRBaciRMC864F0rwtR8XscpdAzL7FMHtL19PtR=
wLXSedUfMj7JRisewg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   34637713 35417696 36047660 36297626 36277589 35917546
            35457541 35037571 34727617 34587659 34637713=20


=3D =3D =3D
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