Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 18 2023 00:54:16

ACUS01 KWNS 180054
SWODY1
SPC AC 180052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks.

....Synopsis...
A surface low continues to deepen just offshore of the NC/SC border,
and is poised to drift northward along the Atlantic coastline as a
mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted over the Carolina
Piedmont region. The onshore advection of low-level moisture will
continue to support marginal destabilization along the Outer Banks
of North Carolina amid a highly sheared environment. Here,
conditions will continue to support isolated severe potential.

....Far Eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...
Ahead of the surface low, an effective warm front extends across the
easternmost counties of North Carolina, and may translate another 50
nautical miles inland to support 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by
mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 5.5-6 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The
00Z MHX observed sounding showed low 60s F dewpoints and no CAPE.
However, the 00Z MHX sounding and VAD showed an impressively large,
curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH present. Given the
very strong low-level shear, any storm that can ingest surface-based
parcels with marginal buoyancy could pose a threat for a tornado or
damaging gust tonight, before the surface low passes just offshore
of VA and the warm sector moves out to sea.

...Squitieri.. 12/18/2023

$$

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