Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 17 2023 17:16:15

ACUS02 KWNS 171716
SWODY2
SPC AC 171714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

....SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated
lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California
coast.

....Northeast...

A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will
continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the
period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the
low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the
offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow
for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England,
very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are
forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much
heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result,
instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be
sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger
convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to
southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb
layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite
the overall poor thermodynamic environment.

....Northern/Central CA...

A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into
the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong
large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes
through the afternoon hours.

...Leitman.. 12/17/2023

$$

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