Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 17 2023 12:48:14 ACUS01 KWNS 171248 SWODY1 SPC AC 171246 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ....Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ....Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ...Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .