Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 17 2023 05:40:14

ACUS01 KWNS 170539
SWODY1
SPC AC 170537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today across coastal Carolinas.
Damaging winds and some tornado threat are the primary hazards.

....Coastal Carolinas...

Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel
short-wave trough ejecting northeast toward the northern Florida
Peninsula. This feature is forecast to advance across the Carolinas
later today. In response, a very strong LLJ has developed which will
nose into southern SC by 17/12z. 850mb flow is forecast to increase
in excess of 80kt by 18/00z across eastern NC into extreme southeast
VA. Latest model guidance suggests the associated surface low will
track from off the northeast FL Coast to near CRE by early evening,
then lift north along the middle Atlantic Coast into NJ during the
overnight hours.

This evolution suggests modified boundary-layer air mass will
advance inland across coastal Carolinas permitting adequate
surface-based buoyancy to develop immediately ahead of the surface
low. Forecast soundings exhibit modest instability near the coast
with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where dew points can rise into the
upper 60s. While lapse rates will remain poor, very strong
deep-layer shear/SRH favor supercells. Damaging winds are certainly
possible with more organized convection given that 50-70kt winds
should be within 1km AGL. Isolated tornado threat can also be
expected with any supercells that emerge within this environment.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/17/2023

$$

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