Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 16 2023 08:30:40

FOUS30 KWBC 160830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 16 2023 - 12Z Sun Dec 17 2023

 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
FLORIDA...

Surface low pressure is expected to develop over the Gulf of
Mexico today and deepen as it approaches the Southeast U.S. today
with low level winds accelerating across the Florida peninsula by
this evening and across portions of the Southeast U.S. later
tonight.  The resulting moisture tranport boosts precipitable
water values to 1.75 inches or greater across most of Florida east
of the Big Bend region...with values exceeding 2 inches across the
southern part of the peninsula. With anomalously high precipitable
water values...some 2 to 3 standardized anomalies above
climatology across the peninsula for this time of year...the
environment should support some downpours as shown by the isolated
20 percent probabilities for 2 inches of rain in 1 hour that
develops late this evening in the 16/00Z HREF runs. With the
exception of the model guidance continuing to favor the area
around the Big Bend region with 24-hour rainfall amounts in excess
of 3 inches...model guidance was still strugglng with the details
about the surface low...its track...and the resulting implcations
for where the heaviest rainfall will fall.  As a
result...maintained the broad Slight risk without too many
changes.

Bann



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ds7wZTbNVJmh8tc2JhYamoiQtALFNRckEVJ1NNd9uSM=
7i3pDTIQkuRI5Q801rAJ3CmN9uvIOuadIpRrC_-KOJkfuL0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ds7wZTbNVJmh8tc2JhYamoiQtALFNRckEVJ1NNd9uSM=
7i3pDTIQkuRI5Q801rAJ3CmN9uvIOuadIpRrC_-K0bQNXss$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ds7wZTbNVJmh8tc2JhYamoiQtALFNRckEVJ1NNd9uSM=
7i3pDTIQkuRI5Q801rAJ3CmN9uvIOuadIpRrC_-KqBkjkTY$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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