Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Dec 16 2023 05:40:37 ACUS01 KWNS 160539 SWODY1 SPC AC 160537 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ....SUMMARY... Severe threat will increase across the Florida Peninsula and Keys, primarily during the latter half of the period. Damaging winds along with some tornado threat are the main risks. ....Florida... Upper trough currently located over the eastern Plains is forecast to advance into the mid MS Valley by late afternoon. As the trough shifts east, midlevel speed max will dig across TX into the western Gulf basin where it will kick a low-latitude short-wave trough northeast toward the FL Peninsula. This low-latitude short wave will be primarily responsible for inducing surface cyclogenesis which will deepen as it tracks across the northern FL Peninsula after midnight. Latest NAM is particularly aggressive with the 850mb response to this feature. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly this evening across the Peninsula, with speeds in excess of 80kt immediately ahead of the surface low track. Intense low-level warm advection will contribute to convection within an environment characterized by poor lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels could yield around 1000 J/kg across southern portions of the Peninsula by late evening where around 70F dew points are expected. Destabilization will be delayed farther north until after midnight, but adequate buoyancy should develop to near the GA border for surface-based updrafts. Very strong deep-layer shear and SRH favor supercells and tornadoes. Have expanded severe probabilities farther north to account for boundary-layer destabilization very late in the period, immediately ahead of the surface low. Damaging winds are also a threat with this activity. ...Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .