Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 16 2023 00:35:34

ACUS01 KWNS 160035
SWODY1
SPC AC 160033

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms remains negligible across the U.S.
tonight.

....01z Update...

Plains upper trough will shift slowly east overnight with the
primary zone of high-level diffluence expected to focus across the
lower MS Valley and lower latitudes. Large-scale forcing should
encourage surface cyclogenesis well offshore -- likely over the
southern Gulf basin. Resultant low-level convergence over southeast
TX/LA will be somewhat negated by this offshore development.
Early-evening radar data suggests a few stronger showers are noted
along the advancing cold front west of Victoria TX, but otherwise
most convection remains quite shallow and lightning-free. While
buoyancy will remain weak through sunrise, forecast soundings
suggest some threat for lightning despite poor lapse rates/buoyancy.
Lightning may also accompany deeper updrafts across extreme south
FL, but more likely over the Straits.

...Darrow.. 12/16/2023

$$

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