Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 15 2023 19:46:42

ACUS01 KWNS 151946
SWODY1
SPC AC 151945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of
precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing
across the Great Plains.  Stronger mid/upper support and colder air
aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting
northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the
northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity
may be low in the near term.  However, as the trailing flank of the
mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the
coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered
weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of
eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight.

...Kerr.. 12/15/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/

....Discussion...
A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern
and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward
today and tonight.  In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will
occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern
Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning.

Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface
trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected,
given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern
and western Gulf of Mexico.  As such, an overall lack of buoyancy
with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through
tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western
Louisiana/Arklatex area.

A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys
later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak
southern Gulf surface low.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

$$

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