Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 15 2023 16:22:47

ACUS01 KWNS 151622
SWODY1
SPC AC 151620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States
through tonight.

....Discussion...
A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern
and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward
today and tonight.  In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will
occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern
Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning.

Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface
trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected,
given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern
and western Gulf of Mexico.  As such, an overall lack of buoyancy
with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through
tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western
Louisiana/Arklatex area.

A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys
later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak
southern Gulf surface low.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

...Goss/Thornton.. 12/15/2023

$$

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