Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 15 2023 09:31:56

ACUS48 KWNS 150931
SWOD48
SPC AC 150930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that much of the eastern
CONUS will be under the influence of an amplified upper trough early
D4/Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave will likely be embedded within
the eastern periphery of this troughing over the Mid-Atlantic
states. A deep surface low attendant to this shortwave will be
stacked below it. This shortwave and attendant low are expected to
move quickly northward/northeastward during the day. There is a low
probability that enough to the warm sector will come on shore to
support deep convection in southern New England.

A strong shortwave is also forecast to move through the western and
southern periphery of this troughing, moving from the Mid MS/Lower
OH Valley southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on
D4/Monday. This shortwave is then expected to continue eastward off
the Northeast Coast on D5/Tuesday. A dry, continental airmass will
be associated with this wave, limiting the severe potential east of
the Rockies on D5/Tuesday through at least D6/Wednesday.

Moisture return is anticipated to begin across the southern Plains
on D7/Thursday, with a cold front possible interacting with this
moisture on D8/Friday. Even so, weak buoyancy is currently expected
to limit the overall severe potential.

...Mosier.. 12/15/2023

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