Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 15 2023 08:30:16

FOUS30 KWBC 150830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 15 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 16 2023

 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND A SMALL PART OF ADJACENT LOUISIANA...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected later today as Gulf
moisture being drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico encounters
a Pacific surface front. Trimmed some of the area from yesterday's
Marginal risk where the precipitable water values failed to reach
0.8 inches...which would only be near the 75th percentile and 1.5
standardized anomalies greater than climatology...although a
slight expansion was drawn to the north where the upper level flow
becomes highly difluent ahead of the upper trough/mid level low
during the afternoon.  Low level flow is forecast to be fairly
modest...so the moisture flux convergence along the surface front
should not result in more than moderate to briefly heavy rainfall.
 The 15/00Z HREF was focused on the western portion of the
Marginal Risk area while the SREF/GEFS had several membering
showing 2 inch QPF contours a bit east of there.  Flash flood
threat is low and isolated with urbanized flooding the biggest
risk over the course of Friday into Saturday morning.

Bann





Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8GnhluYwIsmeIQR-cfSjqNaR9vcTF4m_pi43a6bgYdAr=
iVDVqV5Uu0wN1p2bv_EoTU07t3Rub0qOD9Wo-Z-0YRHliO8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8GnhluYwIsmeIQR-cfSjqNaR9vcTF4m_pi43a6bgYdAr=
iVDVqV5Uu0wN1p2bv_EoTU07t3Rub0qOD9Wo-Z-0q1OLHxs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8GnhluYwIsmeIQR-cfSjqNaR9vcTF4m_pi43a6bgYdAr=
iVDVqV5Uu0wN1p2bv_EoTU07t3Rub0qOD9Wo-Z-0VTUTnNA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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