Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 15 2023 08:15:31

ACUS03 KWNS 150815
SWODY3
SPC AC 150814

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast
coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North
Carolina and the Outer Banks.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from
the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected
to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending
the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low
is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead
of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast.

Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a
tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the
low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast
range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will
exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest
probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the
Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is
most likely.

...Mosier.. 12/15/2023

$$

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