Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 15 2023 05:51:20

ACUS01 KWNS 150550
SWODY1
SPC AC 150548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States
through tonight.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough/low initially over western OK/northwest TX will
move east while weakening and reach the Ozarks/Arklatex.  An
upstream disturbance along the MT/Canadian border will move
southeast into the northern/central Great Plains and act to
reinforce larger-scale troughing over the central U.S.  In the low
levels, a Pacific front over the southern Great Plains will push
southeastward to the TX Gulf Coast during the evening.  With
maritime tropical air displaced from the Gulf Coast and located
south of a residual front over the northern Caribbean, moisture
along the northwest Gulf Coast will limit the potential for
appreciable destabilization. However, showers and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast to develop episodically in small
convective clusters across OK/TX and shift east/southeast during the
period.  Farther east, a surface ridge over the Appalachians will
extend into the northeast Gulf Coast and lead to tranquil conditions
in those areas.

...Smith/Squitieri.. 12/15/2023

$$

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