Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 14 2023 16:25:52

ACUS01 KWNS 141625
SWODY1
SPC AC 141624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....Synopsis...
Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify
as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great
Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500
J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated
thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High
Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise,
ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low
will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the
US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant
front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal
thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With
poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized
thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through
tonight.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023

$$

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