Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 14 2023 08:11:47

FOUS30 KWBC 140811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 14 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 15 2023

 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

Closed upper low over NM will continue to slowly propagate
eastward with an increased large scale ascent pattern focused
across the TX Panhandle into the western half of TX. A strong
mid-level vorticity maxima will rotate around the broad
circulation, entering into west TX by the end of the Zulu day
today. The period from 00-12z Friday will be the greatest time
frame for heavy rainfall for locations along and east of I-27 in
the Panhandle down into the eastern Permian Basin and adjacent
rolling plains. Totals on the order of 1-2" will be common within
the period with some locations potentially seeing over 2" pending
the training echo pattern with the north-northeast storm motions
before shifting more northeasterly when the vorticity maxima
pivots overhead and shifts the precip pattern into more of an
upscale growth regime. The lack of buoyancy limits the potential
of the setup, but the magnitude of large scale ascent and
mid-level vorticity advection within an anomalous moisture field
will maintain a degree of elevated convective potential and
localized flash flooding across the above areas. Primary concern
will be urban-based flooding in towns within the confines of the
MRGL risk, as well as notorious low-water crossing points that can
flood easier due to limited drainage.

Kleebauer


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7H-yfWKyCB-XH4iY6dQolGc_iyq3CTqeuD26DGH8g2np=
Gs_H3kmBLA1dIrERjPwmJHuvrEsI-W2klBp4ATv4p5Ij_7c$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7H-yfWKyCB-XH4iY6dQolGc_iyq3CTqeuD26DGH8g2np=
Gs_H3kmBLA1dIrERjPwmJHuvrEsI-W2klBp4ATv4_JdD5Uw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7H-yfWKyCB-XH4iY6dQolGc_iyq3CTqeuD26DGH8g2np=
Gs_H3kmBLA1dIrERjPwmJHuvrEsI-W2klBp4ATv4FSIBECw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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