Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 13 2023 12:42:14

ACUS01 KWNS 131242
SWODY1
SPC AC 131240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from the Four
Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe
storms are not expected.

....Synopsis...
A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over northern AZ
toward NM by Thursday morning.  Surface ridging and an associated
cool air mass will be maintained across most of the central and
eastern CONUS, beneath confluent midlevel flow.  This low-level flow
regime will limit substantial boundary-layer moisture to south FL,
where a few thunderstorms will be possible along the convergence
zone coincident with the northwest edge of the 68-72 F dewpoints
across the Keys and southeast FL.  Farther west, a modifying air
mass with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will persist across Deep
South TX, though poor lapse rates aloft suggest that convection will
remain too shallow for charge separation and lighting production.

Steepening midlevel lapse rates and ascent immediately east of the
midlevel low could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of northeast AZ and western NM this evening into tonight.  A
few lightning flashes with elevated convection will also be possible
farther east in the persistent warm advection zone with weak
buoyancy over west TX and the TX Panhandle.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 12/13/2023

$$

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