Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 13 2023 08:07:56

FOUS30 KWBC 130807
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 13 2023 - 12Z Thu Dec 14 2023

 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

Latest surface analysis shows a stout surface ridge in place east
of the Mississippi with a stationary boundary focused across the
northern and western Caribbean. These two surface features and the
advection of mid-level energy out of the Caribbean will be the
main drivers for increased convective heavy rainfall across south
FL this morning through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Models are now consistent with a deep moisture advection pattern
encompassing all of the southern FL Peninsula and adjacent FL Keys
with a prevailing northeast boundary layer flow creating a recipe
for persistent frictional convergence along the southeast FL
coast, as well as blooming convection over the southern reaches of
the Everglades. 00z HREF has upped the ante for local maximum
potential within the 3-5" zone with neighborhood probabilities for
each total (3" and 5") jumping to 70% and 45% respectively within
the confines of Miami-Dade county. WV satellite shows some hints
of the mid-level impulse navigating through Cuba with an expected
northward progression through the FL Straits, eventually making
its presence known sometimes after 12z today. Locally heavy
rainfall with rates between 1-2"/hr are increasingly likely given
the proposed airmass with PWATs running closer to 2", a solid
2.5-3 standard deviations above normal by early morning, carrying
through the daytime hours. Some hi-res deterministic are showing
some gaudy solutions with local maxima approaching 6-8" where
convective risks train over the same areas given the persistent NE
steering pattern. CIPS analog packages also give credence to some
of these solutions with events like 12/17/2009 now showing up
within the top analogs. The Southeast U.S evolution given the
surface pattern across the eastern US makes sense, and that event
concluded with multiple flash flood concerns within the Miami
metro area which is the primary focus for today's risk given the
urbanization factors. With the increasing threat of localized
heavy rainfall over the Miami urban corridor, have upgraded to a
Slight Risk to account for the latest trends.

Kleebauer


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-lAd_8gIInhDFJzz-C_lJ-WZ4iO4N7lYr7y3PYKnlcnH=
bQHHVNg--dh_9d9gIXn4OHuSLfvoLbbp9zcq_VCM1jpBpn4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-lAd_8gIInhDFJzz-C_lJ-WZ4iO4N7lYr7y3PYKnlcnH=
bQHHVNg--dh_9d9gIXn4OHuSLfvoLbbp9zcq_VCM0X8kaPY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-lAd_8gIInhDFJzz-C_lJ-WZ4iO4N7lYr7y3PYKnlcnH=
bQHHVNg--dh_9d9gIXn4OHuSLfvoLbbp9zcq_VCMZ-O_LQ4$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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