Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 13 2023 06:40:41

ACUS02 KWNS 130640
SWODY2
SPC AC 130639

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....NM and West TX...
A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest
TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection
regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the
trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection
during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM
Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated
buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1
will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the
period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on
central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible.

....Far South FL and Deep South TX...
A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface
dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to
the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this
plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be
marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level
lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low
topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might
sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a
low-probability thunder threat.

...Grams.. 12/13/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.