Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 12 2023 19:56:42

ACUS01 KWNS 121956
SWODY1
SPC AC 121954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S.
through daybreak Wednesday.

....20Z Update...
Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak
CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely
rooted near or above 700 mb.  The extent of any potential for warm
advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear.
However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability)
has been adjusted somewhat, to focus where latest model output
suggests that weak mid-level ascent and slightly cooler mid-level
temperatures might contribute to thermodynamic profiles most
conducive to lightning.

...Kerr.. 12/12/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/

....Synopsis...

No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update.
Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western
U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight
across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm
advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in
elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected.

$$

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