Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 12 2023 09:57:34

ACUS48 KWNS 120957
SWOD48
SPC AC 120955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during
D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is
too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a
specific day and area.

00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of
the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta
Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may
support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the
South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble
and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their
parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for
cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the
degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and
whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or
can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the
timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment.

...Grams.. 12/12/2023

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