Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 11 2023 23:49:18

FOUS30 KWBC 112349
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Dec 12 2023 - 12Z Tue Dec 12 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann/Roth



Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 12 2023 - 12Z Wed Dec 13 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 13 2023 - 12Z Thu Dec 14 2023

 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

....2030 UTC Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding is
expected on Wednesday as a surface front returns northward while a
weak mid-level impulse pivots out of the western Caribbean.  This
looks to be the start of a multi-day threat for heavy rainfall
over parts southeast Florida given a persistent moisture flux that
will allow precipitable water values to climb to 2 inches...if not
slightly higher...which would be some 2.5-3 standard deviations
above normal for the time frame. This combination should be
sufficient to support rainfall rates on the order of an inch or
two inches per hour and a threat of flash flooding if these rates
or rainfall amounts falls in the urbanized corridor along
Interstate 95 in southeast Florida.  There's potential for this to
upgrade further to a SLGT in future updates, but will refrain
in-case there is a shift in where the convective potential is
forecast.

Bann



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-8NHfYgqCW6ot94ibaUGEJhYvYiPGldPFjczSdmLqCRF=
TsPzMyk0jO4iY57tidOTlwYHUpB77j_bsqP12kYyhkRsP6E$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-8NHfYgqCW6ot94ibaUGEJhYvYiPGldPFjczSdmLqCRF=
TsPzMyk0jO4iY57tidOTlwYHUpB77j_bsqP12kYyEVhxFs4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-8NHfYgqCW6ot94ibaUGEJhYvYiPGldPFjczSdmLqCRF=
TsPzMyk0jO4iY57tidOTlwYHUpB77j_bsqP12kYykSW0oic$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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