Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 11 2023 12:30:58

ACUS01 KWNS 111230
SWODY1
SPC AC 111229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but
will lose amplitude in response to two processes:
1.  The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower
Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region.  The associated low-level cold
front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the
surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple
hours of 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE largely confined to between the top of
a stable boundary layer and the -20 deg C thermal level.  While a
rogue flash cannot be ruled out around Cape Cod, lightning potential
appears too low and isolated to introduce a general-thunder area.
2.  Amplification and slow eastward shift of initially weak
troughing now over the Pacific Coast vicinity, reaching interior
OR/western ID, northwestern NV, and east-central/southwestern CA by
the end of the period.  Associated strengthening DCVA/cooling aloft
should remain too displaced from enough elevated moisture to support
a thunderstorm area until day 2.

...Edwards/Gleason.. 12/11/2023

$$

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