Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 11 2023 09:37:25

ACUS48 KWNS 110937
SWOD48
SPC AC 110935

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe probabilities appear negligible through D5. An
area-of-interest for increasing severe potential during D6-8
continues across the eastern Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts.

An initially stout surface anticyclone will weaken heading into the
weekend over the OH Valley to central Appalachians. A remnant
continental polar airmass will largely remain entrenched across the
Southeast outside of the FL Peninsula. Deterministic 00Z guidance
has trended towards increasing agreement with slow eastward
progression of an upper low over the Southwest across the southern
Great Plains into the Gulf this weekend. This will likely support
cyclogenesis over the predominately offshore (outside of the FL
Peninsula) baroclinic zone, which ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members
have increasingly trended towards supporting their parent
deterministic runs. But the degree of cyclone amplification remains
quite varied, which has related impacts on timing/location of a
potentially favorable warm-sector environment. This renders low
predictability for a 15 percent severe weather area.

...Grams.. 12/11/2023

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