Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 11 2023 08:10:58

FOUS30 KWBC 110809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 11 2023 - 12Z Tue Dec 12 2023

 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE...

Surface low across New England will continue to push northeast
while intensifying steadily through its life cycle. A strong LLJ
on the eastern flank of the surface reflection will maintain a
steady stream of deep layer moisture into portions of ME,
especially for locations east of the I-95 corridor from Bangor on
north and east. Models have shifted the heaviest rainfall of the
period from previous forecasts as the surface low and attendant
frontal boundary have translated further eastward over the past
succession of model runs. This places the heaviest precip over
mainly Downeast ME where some minor snowpack coupled with rainfall
over the past 12-18 hours will exacerbate the flooding potential
within the confines of the areas mentioned above. The limiting
factor in higher risk potential will be the lack of rates due to
limited convective development, as well as forward propagation of
the precip field as it comes through later this morning, exiting
by the afternoon hours. 00z HREF neighborhood probabilities for at
least 1"/3-hrs is pretty high (70-90%) encompassing the outlined
area. That's pretty much where the potential ends as the 2"/3-hrs
probabilities dwindle to a lowly 10%. If the pattern didn't yield
appreciable rainfall prior to this period, this would likely be a
MRGL, but to maintain some continuity from previous forecast
issuance with the pattern still producing heavy rainfall, have
kept the SLGT but brought in the bounds of both it and the MRGL
risk area to adjust for the latest trends. Flash flooding concerns
will remain localized.

Kleebauer


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-95EJeeVTXAYBC6qEiqL-76f6Xgq62Vjz7qHthEDTW7a=
Md-BaVLWImkPyDFk5_am9yIfoZbuEsoaNaDg22u9WaMJH18$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-95EJeeVTXAYBC6qEiqL-76f6Xgq62Vjz7qHthEDTW7a=
Md-BaVLWImkPyDFk5_am9yIfoZbuEsoaNaDg22u9OKF1hC8$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-95EJeeVTXAYBC6qEiqL-76f6Xgq62Vjz7qHthEDTW7a=
Md-BaVLWImkPyDFk5_am9yIfoZbuEsoaNaDg22u9W2Y1GTI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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