Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 11 2023 01:48:54

AWUS01 KWNH 110148
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-110747-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...southeastern New York, southern New England, and
eastern New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110147Z - 110747Z

Summary...A brief lull in the flash flood threat exists in the
short term, but additional heavy rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic
will move into the discussion area and pose a risk of flash
flooding - especially in urbanized areas.

Discussion...The flash flood threat continues across the
discussion area.  A brief lull in rainfall has occurred over the
past hour or so, with the heaviest rain rates confined to much of
New Jersey and areas to the south and west.  An extensive warm
conveyor remains in place across the region, which was maintaining
anomalous instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) and moisture (1.3-1.4 inch
PW values), while weak/subtle shortwaves aloft have helped to
focus convective development.  The complex across New Jersey and
points southwest have generally resulted in 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain
rates and spots of 1.5-2 inch totals in a three-hour period.=20
These rates will result in an increasing flash flood risk tonight
as heavier rain reaches southern New England - especially given
the antecedent rainfall and wet soils across the region.

There is some concern that even heavier rates may materialize
across the region in the 03-06Z timeframe.  A cold front currently
over eastern Pennsylvania and central Maryland was approaching and
should slowly traverse the discussion area from west to east
through the night.  Meanwhile, low-level wind fields are expected
to increase dramatically.  The resulting increase in low-level
convergence and marginal buoyancy should continue to support heavy
rainfall, and some models suggest potential for 2-3 inch totals in
3 hours that would exceed local FFG - especially in southern New
England.  Should the rainfall materialize as progged, flash
flooding will become likely overnight.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9mD-NVjHWTZTneOQu2qT5PkH5c7rBjOF4vM8C9YE5c5vqcDSZPY245JK7rxhIibT_8a0=
4Usc14wFYhzQqeefnLRlI_U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44517109 44496975 43096990 40987174 40257395=20
            40497451 41077460 41897417 43087330=20

=3D =3D =3D
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