Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2326
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 18:05:55

ACUS11 KWNS 101805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101805=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and
southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101805Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and
southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC,
northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving
clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely
being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence
amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP
data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive
theta-e advection should destabilize the coastal air mass amid
filtered diurnal heating in cloud breaks. The increasing
surface-based instability (albeit weak), coupled with strengthening
low/deep-layer shear -- characterized by increasingly large
clockwise-turning low-level hodographs -- will favor a gradual
increase in severe-storm potential through the afternoon. A couple
tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ytP4D_JJuIxD8FavuvF_1LiN0cxwnGWdeykFFPlpAc512MsfVmhI4TJ2VLIxFxZWbguTdb7X=
bmq8XgBrRRn8TKGm5A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35047789 34717867 34387909 33997918 33677905 33617865
            33747796 33987750 34587645 35127549 35917541 36497561
            36767578 36867626 36807675 36307698 35577722 35047789=20


=3D =3D =3D
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