Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2325
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 17:36:50

ACUS11 KWNS 101736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101736=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central North Carolina into far
south-central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101736Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk is evolving over portions of central North
Carolina into far south-central Virginia this afternoon. Brief
tornadoes and/or damaging gusts are the main concern.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms has been evolving
northward along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone draped
across parts of central NC during the last couple hours. This storm
cluster has shown signs of transient midlevel updraft
rotation/supercell characteristics, and recent low-level updraft
intensification. While instability is fairly limited, continued
warming/moistening of the inflow for this activity is expected
during the next few hours. Additionally, the RAX VWP depicts strong
low-level shear, characterized by 30 kt of 0-1 km bulk shear and
ample streamwise vorticity for an east-northeastward-moving storm.
Low-level shear will also continue strengthening amid a
strengthening low-level jet. While the tornado risk may remain
localized (especially near the baroclinic zone) in the short-term,
the tornado/damaging wind risk should increase across the area with
time.=20

Farther east toward the coast, the severe risk should also gradually
increase with time this afternoon, and this area is being monitored
as well.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-dffs-GZeDOYVZBqXwbhXNG81JkkPnSRD1eYDxC-J4YnRq3F487x4HCrc027urpJB9qvASbbo=
5C7YSobbDx08F2VboY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35387997 35697973 36037924 36477871 36637840 36657809
            36637787 36587750 36337729 35977729 35567750 35227804
            34937866 34927922 35127982 35387997=20


=3D =3D =3D
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