Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 16:36:50

ACUS01 KWNS 101636
SWODY1
SPC AC 101635

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA...

....SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions
of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as
portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia.

....Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia...
A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has
persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will
likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across
southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger
heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida
Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon,
which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear
storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk
where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion
2324 for additional short-term details.

....Carolinas/eastern Virginia...
Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning,
low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent
middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and
parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal
destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will
support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for
some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially
include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind
damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and
persist through the evening given an advertised increase in
low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023

$$

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