Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 14:19:50 AWUS01 KWNH 101419 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-102018- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 919 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle, extreme southern Georgia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 101418Z - 102018Z Summary...A vigorous convective complex was migrating slowly eastward across portions of the Florida Panhandle west/southwest of Tallahassee. 3+ inch/hr rain rates were noted with parts of the system. Expectations are that these rain rates will pose an isolated flash flood risk across the discussion area through 20Z. Discussion...Recent MRMS estimates of 3-4 inch/hr rain rates were noted with robust convection located from near Tallahassee southwestward to near Apalachicola. The storms were oriented in broken linear segments parallel to deep southwesterly flow aloft, which was allowing for localized training. Meanwhile, 1000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.7+ inch PW values were located in a very narrow warm/moist sector just ahead of the convective complex while contributing to extremely efficient rainfall processes. Given the overall convective scenario, the expectation over the next 3-6 hours is that slow eastward translation of the convective complex will like result in continued areas of ~3 inch/hr rain rates - especially along and south of I-10 across the discussion area. As typical for the region, FFG thresholds are generally in the 3-4 inch/hr and 4 inch/3-hr range across most of the Panhandle.=20 Observed rain rates have only approached these thresholds on an isolated/spotty basis. Again, these trends are expected to continue with only a slow eastward translation of the axes of heavier rainfall. Flash flood potential will likely be tied to areas where heavier rainfall can 1) occur over urban/sensitive ground areas or 2) where localized training can lengthen the duration of heavier rainfall. Expectations are that this risk will extend through 20Z while reaching the I-75 corridor in north Florida through 20Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9WSkWRZTeXofUS75guTzLAD-krAF-1YRCnD4Y1b3EpeNNlR7rqyl9uvo3LRsljH6DIyQ= rEzR3oWdZ4ze-M5dG-9WMck$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31098444 30788274 29978246 29168265 29448539=20 30738548=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .