Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2321
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 10:01:17

ACUS11 KWNS 101001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101000=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-101130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern
AL...and western GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 719...

Valid 101000Z - 101130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow
corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold
front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL,
and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral
boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across
this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to
support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than
adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55
kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and
occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past
couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective
mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this
activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of
0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per
latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be
sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging
winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the
cold front.

...Gleason.. 12/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9e2T2Uw6s32RUWyrJVITx8GmUkdAkKdiQ-Kj28CcJCKwe-RcFGppsOgwfTjPUWEpOIj2HDF-G=
GqZ2RggVruloBz0nis$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529
            29978567 30268631 30358685=20


=3D =3D =3D
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