Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 08:53:09

ACUS48 KWNS 100852
SWOD48
SPC AC 100851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A
reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH
Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week.
This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of
the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in
these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity
by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched
farther inland over the Southeast.

The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally
caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and
CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic
Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in
response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east
towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run
continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this
wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern
stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite
GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat,
an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend
includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast.

...Grams.. 12/10/2023

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