Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 06:43:16

ACUS02 KWNS 100643
SWODY2
SPC AC 100641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent on Monday.

....Discussion...
Substantial cyclogenesis tonight will persist into Monday with the
surface low tracking across southern and eastern New England to the
Canadian Maritimes. An extremely strong low-level jet ahead of the
cyclone, increasing to around 100 kts at 850 mb, should advect
adequate western Atlantic moisture to yield minimal elevated
buoyancy towards coastal New England. The bulk of guidance outside
of the 00Z NAM indicates this may be inadequate for charge
separation amid weak lapse rates above 500 mb. But given the very
strong forcing for ascent, there may be a short-duration period from
12-15Z across southeast MA to coastal ME where heavier convective
elements within the broader warm conveyor rain band could produce a
few lightning flashes.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, with the surface cold front expected to
clear the rest of the Atlantic Seaboard prior to 12Z Monday,
thunderstorm potential will be negligible.

...Grams.. 12/10/2023

$$

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