Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2319
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 05:54:17

ACUS11 KWNS 100554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100553=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Discussion 2319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Alabama into west-central
Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 718...

Valid 100553Z - 100800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 718 continues.

SUMMARY...Modest reductions in MLCIN have allowed activity in
Alabama to intensify. Greater low/mid-level ascent has fostered
additional discrete storms ahead of the cold front. Tornadoes and
damaging winds will remain possible into the overnight. A watch east
of WW 717 could be needed if discrete storms mature/intensify.

DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis has shown MLCIN decreasing
across central/southern Alabama over the last hour or so. This is
likely due to some weak theta-e advection within the low-levels. At
the same time, an increase in intensity of two linear segments west
and southwest and Birmingham has also been noted. Low-level shear
from area VAD profiles continue to suggest potential for embedded
QLCS circulations and brief tornadoes. Farther east, as has been the
case much of the evening, discrete elements are again trying to
mature from southeast Alabama into west-central Georgia. With ascent
from the mid-level trough and a modest increase in the low-level
jet, this activity seems likely to continue. The primary question
with these discrete storms is how mature they will become. Buoyancy
drops off to the east, but some eastward push of the better airmass
is possible as the trough continues its approach. Should a storm
mature, the environment would be similarly supportive of tornadoes
farther east as well. This activity will have to be monitored and a
watch could be needed if further intensification occurs. Otherwise,
strong to severe wind gusts will also be a concern, particularly
with any more organized linear segments.

...Wendt.. 12/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!52rQxGbxQ5h9xd4xFFITVICZ-Av-Ax_ba5fmd5XGuq0Nsg0oZqXwVtd-myLfbqJtxxoXQPaEx=
wak06B2AYXdGXU4A1k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32648820 33548746 33968572 34028458 33758434 32878426
            32198469 31678500 31288560 31138618 31338728 31708799
            32648820=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.