Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2316
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 02:54:12

ACUS11 KWNS 100254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100253=20
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-100500-

Mesoscale Discussion 2316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast Tennessee into far southeast
Kentucky and extreme western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 100253Z - 100500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An instance or two of damaging gusts or a brief tornado
may occur in association with an approaching line of storms.
However, the severe threat should be sparse and a WW issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to progress east across portions of
southern KY into middle TN. However, low-level moisture and overall
buoyancy are struggling to overspread far southeastern parts of KY
into eastern TN, limiting the severe threat. As the axis of a LLJ
overspreads the central Appalachians, strong deep-layer and
low-level shear should result. The strong low-level shear suggests
that a damaging gust or tornado could occur if a storm or line
segment could ingest any surface-based, unstable air parcels.
Nonetheless, the limited low-level moisture amid a cooling boundary
layer suggests that ingesting surface-based, buoyant parcels will be
challenging, so the severe threat should be sparse at best. As such,
a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Goss.. 12/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_YFOd4wweiZGuHl8Gwg-RPKieGqK8ONCG8XuxbW2FkUbeP1zQ7PSUN2MyLq9PVBzFYcuntSUO=
Qpkt5W_ZhtDTytgMFI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   35708452 36108478 36628452 37418368 37428295 37218250
            36808208 36488208 36128256 35908307 35638359 35708452=20


=3D =3D =3D
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