Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2309
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 09 2023 22:43:52

ACUS11 KWNS 092243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092242=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Far eastern Texas into central/northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092242Z - 100015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds
into the evening. The tornado threat is expected to be more
marginal. A small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed depending
on convective trends in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed along the cold front
in far eastern Texas and west-central Louisiana. The strongest storm
in Natchitoches Parish has exhibited supercell characteristics with
a TBSS on KSHV/KPOE radars indicating potential for large hail. The
18Z LCH sounding showed some cooling aloft and modest erosion of a
inversion around 800 mb. That warm layer aloft may hinder updrafts
until stronger forcing arrives later his evening. The greatest
threat for large hail will likely be over the next few hours when
storms are more discrete. Storm coverage will increase and the mode
will become more linear with time as the synoptic trough digs into
the Southeast this evening/overnight. At that time, damaging winds
would become the primary threat. Potential for tornadoes should
remain more limited with low-level shear and hodograph curvature
being rather modest per area VAD profiles. A small severe
thunderstorm watch may need to be considered, but coverage and
intensity may not increase until storms move farther east. Trends
will be monitored.

...Wendt/Goss.. 12/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8wGHtYMy_9kSjWlAyfJJNUmvuTHSX1Q-u5iULalkhohobk77IMp3sNnvVpa9G7nMVv2orPSlX=
b9Xira719BeSUORKWA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30299404 30419443 30839455 31719415 32419314 32749260
            32699236 32219211 31109213 30729240 30429305 30279397
            30299404=20


=3D =3D =3D
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